Do you have a saver personality?

Finances, Fiscal Regulations | Posted by admin
Aug 28 2009

Though there are emotional quirks with true saving instruments, the  frequency of trauma is low. Saving instruments are for investors who value  predictability and are not troubled by jealousy, resentment, or regret when  other investments produce spectacular returns and make headlines. Longterm  returns on savings instruments are lower than for other investment  classes. For those who value peace of mind, the price of lost returns is more  than reasonable.

Savings instruments are also good for investors who do not want to  spend time on their investments. Buy and ignore is a good philosophy for  savers. Someone who needs to be out of the country for five years should  leave her money in savings instruments. Blind neglect is often advocated  for stocks, but in fact, there are too many five-year periods when stocks  lose half their value.

Picking Treasury bonds requires a few hours each year. Higher yields  can be found in agency issues and older bonds. Call provisions must be  evaluated. The time requirements are minimal.

Investors looking for action should look elsewhere. If you enjoy lots of  research, or want to interact with people such as tenants, other investors, or  money managers, savings instruments are not for you. While you can create  excitement trading bonds, you cannot create profits. High-energy investors should stay clear. Disappointment will follow.

Treasury bonds are also the only insurance against deflation. Savers  who worry that current Japanese deflation may be exported to the United  States or that there will be a return to deflation of the 1930s will feel safe  here. Savers concerned with inflation will be comfortable with TIPs and  money market funds.

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Solution to your financial problems

Finances, Fiscal Regulations, Global Markets, Loans | Posted by admin
Aug 04 2009

Michael tinkers with his portfolio obsessively. In prior years, he read investment magazines and newspapers late into the night. Now he has a fast Internet connection and often signs off after midnight. Susan is freaked out by the paper gains and losses that routinely occur every month. The abstract nature of the account statements, reports, newspaper articles, and Web sites makes her nervous. Her mind cannot grasp what they really own nor does she understand why Michael is constantly playing with it. Ever since the decline of 1990, when they were new to the stock market, there has been a sense of impending doom over their financial security.

Interestingly, Michael and Susan would both be happier with a portfolio primarily consisting of single-family homes. Michael’s tinkering could cut costs and improve rents and tenant quality. He has no guilt about being a landlord. He and Susan have a nice house they are proud to own. They are now living in their third home together. Together they were able to buy two cute cottages in attractive neighborhoods, which they sold for much more than the purchase price. Michael is fair with the many employees he supervises.

There is no reason he would be a poor landlord. Michael is also not likely to trade properties. While he is able to justify many small commissions to a discount broker, having never added them all up, the idea of giving 6 percent of his property to a Realtor every time he sells a building does not appeal to him. Susan could drive by and look at their properties any time she needed reassurance. The children could help out cleaning and fixing up between tenants. Though Michael may lose a major topic of conversation at the office, he would sleep better and be more productive at work. He would also be wealthier. If, in each of the last 10 years, he had bought a new single family home with $50,000 down, putting nothing in his 401(k) or anywhere else, he could potentially have equity of $1,000,000 today.

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Simple interest loans

Fiscal Regulations, Global Markets, Loans | Posted by admin
Jul 20 2009

Simple interest is, well, simple. To calculate simple interest, you would multiply your interest rate by the balance that you owe. Any payment you make, in excess of the interest calculated for that period, is applied toward your balance or “principal.”

Let’s look at an example. Bob takes out a simple interest loan of $1,000, at 12% per year. If Bob makes one payment, at the end of the year, $120 in interest ($1,000 multiplied by 12%) will be subtracted from his payment before it is applied to what he actually owes. If he sends in $500, his balance will drop to $620 ($1,000 balance minus $380 applied to principal).

If Bob waits another full year to make a payment, he will owe $74.40 in interest. That’s his $620 balance multiplied by 12%. Whatever payment he makes will have $74.40 subtracted from it for interest, before it is applied to his balance.

That’s it! It’s that simple! Most auto loans, many mortgages, and most personal loans from credit unions use
simple interest. As you’ll see in a moment, these are far more preferable than loans that use compound interest.

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How interest rates work

Finances, Loans, Taxes, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Jul 06 2009

There are two basic types of interest that every person who uses debt or credit cards needs to understand: simple interest and compound interest. Over time, there is a significant difference between these two methods of calculating your interest on a debt. Part of your strategy to eliminate debt will probably involve getting rid of debts that use compound interest first.

Often, the rate you’re quoted on a loan or a savings account is not what you actually pay or earn. Depending on how often the actual interest due to you or the lender is calculated, your rate may be noticeably higher than the “nominal” or stated rate. APR stands for annual percentage rate, and refers to the actual cost of borrowing the money based on the frequency of the interest calculation. For example, a 6% loan may have an APR of 6.15%, depending on the calculation period. APY is identical to APR, except that it calculates the actual rate that our savings earns, instead of the interest we pay on a loan.

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Building in Market Risk

Finances, Loans, Taxes | Posted by admin
Jun 12 2009

We have yet to take into consideration market risk. Using a Black-Scholes model, a volatility of 50 percent (characteristic of DuPont and Dow stock today), and an overall chance of success of 10.4 percent, the value of the Polyarothene project is $3.57 million versus $1.67 million based on the decision tree alone.

This result does not consider the option to abandon at each of four stages; it is based on a straight 10.4 percent unique risk. So it is the rifle shot, but it takes into account the volatility of the marketplace. This result is also interesting—because of market volatility alone, it might still pay to do this rifle shot project, just as it would pay to drill the exploratory well in Chapter 5. NPV gave the wrong answer for another reason!
Of course, we should take into account both kinds of risk.

This requires us to work backward from the end result, using the probabilities of success cited in the previous section. First, value an option of entering stage 4 with an 83 percent chance of successful commercialization, using Black-Scholes. With this value in hand, go back a stage: Value the option of entering stage 3 with a 75 percent success rate and the reward (underlying security) being the value of the stage 4 option, discounted for the probability of success.

Do it twice more until you are back to the beginning of the process, stage 1. We have created a series of linked, nested, compound options. Although the detailed calculations are beyond the scope of this book, the result is interesting: $4.75 million.

In effect, we have now moderated the negative impacts associated with unique risk using multiple options to abandon and have taken full advantage of the positive values associated with market risk.

To summarize, without the option to abandon, the project has an NPV of –$2.60 million. With four options to abandon, which relate only to unique risk, it is worth $1.67 million. Adding market risk to the equation improves the value to $4.75 million. In relative terms, each step in risk management represents an enormous increment in value. Note also that these results depend critically on the systematic reduction of risk at each stage and the acceleration of costs from stage to stage. But that is how R&D should be managed.

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Hedging as a Risk Management Tool

Finances, Global Markets, Taxes | Posted by admin
May 23 2009

A second critical tool in risk management is hedging, which is greatly facilitated by the global banking system. In the commercial world, if one wishes to buy a fermentation plant from a Swiss supplier with 10 percent down and 90 percent due on delivery 12 months hence, one considers a currency hedge. If the price is quoted in U.S. dollars, the Swiss manufacturer may buy a forward option on dollars. If it is quoted in Swiss francs, the U.S. customer may buy a forward option on Swiss francs. In either case, for a small price, their business plans are not exposed to currency risk. When I joined W. R. Grace & Co. in 1982, I found just such a contract on a fermentation pilot plant in place. In fact, the dollar strengthened dramatically, so we bought the plant far more cheaply than expected, while being fully protected if the currency had moved in the opposite direction.

The bankers offering these hedges can reduce their risks substantially, for example, by finding a counterparty, perhaps a Swiss firm buying computers from a U.S. supplier in the same time frame. This activity is classic hedging. Note that the hedge is against market risk.

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WHAT IS FINANCIAL CDO EQUITY?

Loans, Taxes, Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Apr 29 2009

CDOs are privately placed securities backed by pools of financial assets. CDO equity represents a residual claim on the cash flows from the assets collateralizing a CDO. Those assets could be leveraged loans, corporate bonds, residential mortgage loans, commercial mortgage loans, or something else (e.g., emerging market debt and trust-preferred securities).

A CDO redistributes cash flows from a set of assets to a series of notes. The cash flow structure is the most common type of CDO and will receive the bulk of this report’s attention. With this structure, cash flow coverage tests are based on asset par amounts. With the less common market value structure, coverage tests are based on asset market values. Synthetic structures, many of which forego coverage tests, are also quite common.

In funded synthetic CDOs, the collateral is a combination of credit default swaps (CDS) and high-quality assets. In cash flow structures, the mechanism that determines the allocation of cash flows is called a waterfall. Equity payments are last in priority, after liability payments, management fees and taxes. The residual cash flows available to pay equity can be diverted if interest and par coverage ratios fall below prescribed limits. Collateral losses due to default and trading losses will result in equity principal losses.

Because a CDO is collateralized by a pool of assets, a long equity position is similar in risk to a long position in the collateral and a short position in the senior notes. The senior note investors typically receive a fixed spread above LIBOR. Hence, equity is a matched funded position when the collateral is floating rate. The term funding structure implies that equity is also a nonrecourse, leveraged investment. Nonrecourse means the investment does not require additional funding other than what is originally tendered, regardless of how poorly the assets perform. Leveraged means the investor borrows money to purchase the security, presumably at a lower interest rate than the expected return on the investment. This allows investors to increase the potential return (but also the risk) of their investment.

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Financial Microeconomic Concepts

Finances, Fiscal Regulations, Global Markets | Posted by admin
Apr 24 2009

Economics is conventionally divided into two types of analysis: microeconomics and macroeconomics. Microeconomics studies how individuals and firms allocate scarce resources, whereas macroeconomics analyses economywide phenomena, resulting from decision-making in all markets. One way to understand the distinction between these two approaches is to consider some generalised examples. Microeconomics is concerned with determining how prices, values and rents emerge and change, and how firms respond. It involves an examination of the effects of new taxes and government incentives, the characteristics of demand, determination of a firm’s profit, and so on. In other words, it tries to understand the economic motives of market participants such as landowners, developers, occupiers and investors. This diverse set of participants is rather fragmented and at times adversarial – but microeconomic analysis works on the basis that we can generalise about the behaviour of these parties. A particular branch of economics known as urban land economics is concerned with the microeconomic implications of scarcity and the allocation of urban property rights. Ball et al. (1998) in the preface to their book state that: ‘The microeconomics of commercial property, proved to be the most difficult [area] to draw together. There simply does not exist an adequate and complete general microeconomic theory of urban property markets.’ This is true and an attempt to develop such a theory is not attempted here! Instead this section brings together and explains the key microeconomic concepts and theories that have a bearing on urban property markets and the important work of authors such as Harvey (1981), Fraser (1993) and Myers (2006) in relating classical economic concepts and theories to urban land and property markets is acknowledged.

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Business Competition Intense

Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Apr 18 2009

Competitive considerations have heavy and pervasive impacts on state policies. Concerns over non-competitive tax burdens translate into pressures to keep spending, and thus taxes, low. Concern over the effects of taxes on economically attractive, mobile taxpayers encourages states to minimize taxes on footloose firms, high-income households, and affluent retirees. Competition for economic development motivates huge outlays for industrial parks, sports stadiums, convention centers, highways, and other programs.

The Economic War Among The States: State officials are in constant economic competition with each other. Candidates for state offices campaign on platforms including promises of enhancing their state’s economic development — bringing more jobs, higher incomes, and fiscal dividends for state and local governments. They point with pride to signs of economic success such as statistics on increased employment and examples of new plants. They seek track records including not losing existing employers to the lures of other states, encouraging the growth of existing firms, and drawing new employers to their state. Their challengers leap on signs of failure such as high unemployment, plant closings, layoffs, and even losses of
professional sports teams. Business groups lobby states to eliminate signs of what they call a “poor business climate.”

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Business Competitive Environment

Uncategorized | Posted by admin
Apr 14 2009

The Competitive Environment: Interstate competition is based in the reality of the open economy which the U.S. Constitution guarantees to citizens of every state. It protects the rights of individuals to move to any state and enjoy the privileges of long-time residents. It permits firms from any state to sell in every state, free from tariffs and quotas, and subject to no higher taxes nor more stringent regulations than in-state firms. It permits firms to establish new plants anywhere and to abandon a state entirely for any reason — including dissatisfaction with policies of that state. Attempts by states to shelter their markets from interstate competition are consistently overturned by federal courts as violations of the Commerce Clause of the Constitution.

Changes in technology and the nation’s economy have been increasing the impact of competitive factors on state policies and are likely to continue to do so. Reductions in the weight-to-value ratio of goods, in transportation costs and speed, and in communications cost have liberated producers from the need to be in close proximity to customers. Whole industries — beer, potato chips, dairy products, hardware vendors, and banks — have been shifting from locally based businesses to national firms. Deregulation of public utilities is reducing the ability of state and local governments to continue policies which have imposed disproportionate taxes on them.

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