The global financial crisis spreads, and thus also pushes on private consumption. Therefore, warns the Society for Consumer Research for the year 2008 before a stagnation in private consumption and thus facing a higher risk of recession.
The Society for Consumer Research (GfK) has in the recent publication of these growth forecasts from an initial 0.5 percent to the current 0 percent and thus a reduced stagnation. This was announced at the company GfK in Nuremberg with 25.08.2008. However, there are also some hope at the dark sky, because the company could announce that the downward trend of consumer sentiment has deteriorated further. Therefore, increased the forecast for the GfK consumer climate indicator of 1.8 points in October after 1.6 points in September.
The GfK had, however, the announcement of the figures admit that the surveys of consumers before September 15 took place. This morning, 15.09.2008, is probably as a black day for banks in history. Had the surveys of consumers after that date took place, then perhaps the consumer climate substantially worse and the index would have done no improvement. Its impact will be in the index for the month of November are introduced.
According to the GfK reports have therefore been the economic and income expectations of consumers in the month of September improved significantly, however, the outlook for the German economy (recession looming threat) is still very negative. Many citizens are even planning major purchases within the next few months, so retailers never so bad Christmas business may emanate. Reasons were partly falling costs for energy and gasoline.
About recession and stagnation
A stagnation of the economy means that no growth achieved neither positive nor negative sense. The economy and hence the economy of a country occurs on the body. Worse than a stagnation, a recession in the economy (economic performance) of a country is reduced. This would have a negative impact on individuals and not just on the economy of a country.