June 12, 2009
We have yet to take into consideration market risk. Using a Black-Scholes model, a volatility of 50 percent (characteristic of DuPont and Dow stock today), and an overall chance of success of 10.4 percent, the value of the Polyarothene project is $3.57 million versus $1.67 million based on the decision tree alone.
This result does not consider the option to abandon at each of four stages; it is based on a straight 10.4 percent unique risk. So it is the rifle shot, but it takes into account the volatility of the marketplace. This result is also interesting—because of market volatility alone, it might still pay to do this rifle shot project, just as it would pay to drill the exploratory well in Chapter 5. NPV gave the wrong answer for another reason!
Of course, we should take into account both kinds of risk.
This requires us to work backward from the end result, using the probabilities of success cited in the previous section. First, value an option of entering stage 4 with an 83 percent chance of successful commercialization, using Black-Scholes. With this value in hand, go back a stage: Value the option of entering stage 3 with a 75 percent success rate and the reward (underlying security) being the value of the stage 4 option, discounted for the probability of success.
Do it twice more until you are back to the beginning of the process, stage 1. We have created a series of linked, nested, compound options. Although the detailed calculations are beyond the scope of this book, the result is interesting: $4.75 million.
In effect, we have now moderated the negative impacts associated with unique risk using multiple options to abandon and have taken full advantage of the positive values associated with market risk.
To summarize, without the option to abandon, the project has an NPV of –$2.60 million. With four options to abandon, which relate only to unique risk, it is worth $1.67 million. Adding market risk to the equation improves the value to $4.75 million. In relative terms, each step in risk management represents an enormous increment in value. Note also that these results depend critically on the systematic reduction of risk at each stage and the acceleration of costs from stage to stage. But that is how R&D should be managed.
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May 23, 2009
A second critical tool in risk management is hedging, which is greatly facilitated by the global banking system. In the commercial world, if one wishes to buy a fermentation plant from a Swiss supplier with 10 percent down and 90 percent due on delivery 12 months hence, one considers a currency hedge. If the price is quoted in U.S. dollars, the Swiss manufacturer may buy a forward option on dollars. If it is quoted in Swiss francs, the U.S. customer may buy a forward option on Swiss francs. In either case, for a small price, their business plans are not exposed to currency risk. When I joined W. R. Grace & Co. in 1982, I found just such a contract on a fermentation pilot plant in place. In fact, the dollar strengthened dramatically, so we bought the plant far more cheaply than expected, while being fully protected if the currency had moved in the opposite direction.
The bankers offering these hedges can reduce their risks substantially, for example, by finding a counterparty, perhaps a Swiss firm buying computers from a U.S. supplier in the same time frame. This activity is classic hedging. Note that the hedge is against market risk.
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April 29, 2009
CDOs are privately placed securities backed by pools of financial assets. CDO equity represents a residual claim on the cash flows from the assets collateralizing a CDO. Those assets could be leveraged loans, corporate bonds, residential mortgage loans, commercial mortgage loans, or something else (e.g., emerging market debt and trust-preferred securities).
A CDO redistributes cash flows from a set of assets to a series of notes. The cash flow structure is the most common type of CDO and will receive the bulk of this report’s attention. With this structure, cash flow coverage tests are based on asset par amounts. With the less common market value structure, coverage tests are based on asset market values. Synthetic structures, many of which forego coverage tests, are also quite common.
In funded synthetic CDOs, the collateral is a combination of credit default swaps (CDS) and high-quality assets. In cash flow structures, the mechanism that determines the allocation of cash flows is called a waterfall. Equity payments are last in priority, after liability payments, management fees and taxes. The residual cash flows available to pay equity can be diverted if interest and par coverage ratios fall below prescribed limits. Collateral losses due to default and trading losses will result in equity principal losses.
Because a CDO is collateralized by a pool of assets, a long equity position is similar in risk to a long position in the collateral and a short position in the senior notes. The senior note investors typically receive a fixed spread above LIBOR. Hence, equity is a matched funded position when the collateral is floating rate. The term funding structure implies that equity is also a nonrecourse, leveraged investment. Nonrecourse means the investment does not require additional funding other than what is originally tendered, regardless of how poorly the assets perform. Leveraged means the investor borrows money to purchase the security, presumably at a lower interest rate than the expected return on the investment. This allows investors to increase the potential return (but also the risk) of their investment.
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April 24, 2009
Economics is conventionally divided into two types of analysis: microeconomics and macroeconomics. Microeconomics studies how individuals and firms allocate scarce resources, whereas macroeconomics analyses economywide phenomena, resulting from decision-making in all markets. One way to understand the distinction between these two approaches is to consider some generalised examples. Microeconomics is concerned with determining how prices, values and rents emerge and change, and how firms respond. It involves an examination of the effects of new taxes and government incentives, the characteristics of demand, determination of a firm’s profit, and so on. In other words, it tries to understand the economic motives of market participants such as landowners, developers, occupiers and investors. This diverse set of participants is rather fragmented and at times adversarial – but microeconomic analysis works on the basis that we can generalise about the behaviour of these parties. A particular branch of economics known as urban land economics is concerned with the microeconomic implications of scarcity and the allocation of urban property rights. Ball et al. (1998) in the preface to their book state that: ‘The microeconomics of commercial property, proved to be the most difficult [area] to draw together. There simply does not exist an adequate and complete general microeconomic theory of urban property markets.’ This is true and an attempt to develop such a theory is not attempted here! Instead this section brings together and explains the key microeconomic concepts and theories that have a bearing on urban property markets and the important work of authors such as Harvey (1981), Fraser (1993) and Myers (2006) in relating classical economic concepts and theories to urban land and property markets is acknowledged.
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April 18, 2009
Competitive considerations have heavy and pervasive impacts on state policies. Concerns over non-competitive tax burdens translate into pressures to keep spending, and thus taxes, low. Concern over the effects of taxes on economically attractive, mobile taxpayers encourages states to minimize taxes on footloose firms, high-income households, and affluent retirees. Competition for economic development motivates huge outlays for industrial parks, sports stadiums, convention centers, highways, and other programs.
The Economic War Among The States: State officials are in constant economic competition with each other. Candidates for state offices campaign on platforms including promises of enhancing their state’s economic development — bringing more jobs, higher incomes, and fiscal dividends for state and local governments. They point with pride to signs of economic success such as statistics on increased employment and examples of new plants. They seek track records including not losing existing employers to the lures of other states, encouraging the growth of existing firms, and drawing new employers to their state. Their challengers leap on signs of failure such as high unemployment, plant closings, layoffs, and even losses of
professional sports teams. Business groups lobby states to eliminate signs of what they call a “poor business climate.”
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April 14, 2009
The Competitive Environment: Interstate competition is based in the reality of the open economy which the U.S. Constitution guarantees to citizens of every state. It protects the rights of individuals to move to any state and enjoy the privileges of long-time residents. It permits firms from any state to sell in every state, free from tariffs and quotas, and subject to no higher taxes nor more stringent regulations than in-state firms. It permits firms to establish new plants anywhere and to abandon a state entirely for any reason — including dissatisfaction with policies of that state. Attempts by states to shelter their markets from interstate competition are consistently overturned by federal courts as violations of the Commerce Clause of the Constitution.
Changes in technology and the nation’s economy have been increasing the impact of competitive factors on state policies and are likely to continue to do so. Reductions in the weight-to-value ratio of goods, in transportation costs and speed, and in communications cost have liberated producers from the need to be in close proximity to customers. Whole industries — beer, potato chips, dairy products, hardware vendors, and banks — have been shifting from locally based businesses to national firms. Deregulation of public utilities is reducing the ability of state and local governments to continue policies which have imposed disproportionate taxes on them.
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April 12, 2009
There is strong evidence that decisions of firms to locate, expand, and remain in particular states are heavily influenced by state policies including state and local tax levels. Firms planning to establish new plants or contemplating moves routinely solicit competitive offers from states. There are many examples of firms relocating or deciding to put their new plants in different states because of home-state taxes they consider too high.
Nearly all states respond to these solicitations for offers to draw new plants, often with tax concessions tailored to the soliciting firm. But offering such concessions only to firms considering relocation produces criticisms of state officials for not pursuing even-handed policies. More important, it induces all footloose firms to consider moves if for no other reason than to induce concessions from home states.
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April 10, 2009
The impact of interstate competition has been apparent in tax policy perceived as affecting firms’ location decisions. In legislative sessions in 1997 and each of the two previous years, at least 20 states passed legislation to reduce business taxes in some way in order to encourage economic development. In addition, nearly all states allow local officials to offer concessions reducing or eliminating local taxes. The changes in Tennessee taxes shown in the Tennessee Department Of Revenue paper Business Taxes: Current Structure And Options For Change are typical of the kinds of changes being made by most states.
Successive moves of this type suggest that taxation of footloose firms, particularly those in manufacturing, is gradually being reduced. State policies have been moving in the direction of ending: (1) sales taxes on equipment and supplies using in constructing new facilities, (2) property taxes on manufacturers’ inventories, machinery, and equipment, (3) for limited times, property taxes on new plants and expansions, and (4) corporate profit taxes associated with out-of-state sales. In addition, states are enacting special tax concessions for particular industries such as oil and gas exploration and production, processing of agricultural commodities, aircraft maintenance, banking, and insurance.
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September 26, 2008
The global financial crisis spreads, and thus also pushes on private consumption. Therefore, warns the Society for Consumer Research for the year 2008 before a stagnation in private consumption and thus facing a higher risk of recession.
The Society for Consumer Research (GfK) has in the recent publication of these growth forecasts from an initial 0.5 percent to the current 0 percent and thus a reduced stagnation. This was announced at the company GfK in Nuremberg with 25.08.2008. However, there are also some hope at the dark sky, because the company could announce that the downward trend of consumer sentiment has deteriorated further. Therefore, increased the forecast for the GfK consumer climate indicator of 1.8 points in October after 1.6 points in September.
The GfK had, however, the announcement of the figures admit that the surveys of consumers before September 15 took place. This morning, 15.09.2008, is probably as a black day for banks in history. Had the surveys of consumers after that date took place, then perhaps the consumer climate substantially worse and the index would have done no improvement. Its impact will be in the index for the month of November are introduced.
According to the GfK reports have therefore been the economic and income expectations of consumers in the month of September improved significantly, however, the outlook for the German economy (recession looming threat) is still very negative. Many citizens are even planning major purchases within the next few months, so retailers never so bad Christmas business may emanate. Reasons were partly falling costs for energy and gasoline.
About recession and stagnation
A stagnation of the economy means that no growth achieved neither positive nor negative sense. The economy and hence the economy of a country occurs on the body. Worse than a stagnation, a recession in the economy (economic performance) of a country is reduced. This would have a negative impact on individuals and not just on the economy of a country.
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September 26, 2008
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